Let me start this by stating I am not a fan of Moyes, but in the interest of balance I thought it would be good to review how he has performed by the numbers (all figures from WyScout) to remove my bias. There is a split in the fanbase as to whether Moyes deserves his chance to implement his vision for West Ham & utilise the RB model which is a totally different conversation for another day.
Defence
Starting with the defence seems appropriate as Moyes is often described as pragmatic or cautious, with a “let’s not lose first” approach. This is obviously a departure from Pellegrini who very much always talked up attacking opponents & looking to win. Under Moyes it has been stated we have been more organised & stronger defensively, yet statistically it would also point to (depending on your viewpoint) a more passive/structured approach. The PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action) is on average 18.02 which is an increase of 7.10 passes on Pellegrini. In addition the defensive duel attempts are down by 13.41 per 90 too, although success rate is up by 1.08% to 60.77%.
Another indicator of West Ham sitting deeper & is the need to commit to sliding challenges has dropped by 1.12 per 90. Under Pellegrini this was at 7.16 sliding tackles attempts per 90, suggesting there was a greater need to engage in more “last ditch” tackles or urgency to prevent dangerous situations. This isn’t a positive in my eyes as often slide tackles are to try make up for positioning or “desperation” to prevent a dangerous opportunity from developing, rarely is a slide tackle the best means of retaining/adjusting possession.
In terms of shots faced we are currently seeing on average 12.25 per 90 (increase of 0.41 per 90), whilst this isn’t ideal facing more shots the accuracy of these has decreased by 7.69% (39.33%). As a result of facing more shots & engaging less in duels we have seen an increase in the number of clearances at 19.88 (0.61 increase) & 47.19 interceptions per 90 (4.56 increase).
Overall the number of goals conceded is marginally worse by 0.01 with West Ham conceding on average 1.69 goals per 90. So defensively it is a real mixed bag as it can be argued we have seen some improvements, but nothing which demonstrates great change bar a deeper defensive line. The most significant part is that Moyes has had Fabianski available for 14/16 games this season, whereas Pellegrini could only call upon him 8/19 times which was a monumental problem defensively.
Passing
I very much doubt this will come as a shock but under Moyes retention of the ball isn’t very high on the list of priorities.
In his 16 EPL games this season West Ham on average have dropped by more than 76.32 passes per 90 (averaging 333.31)with a success rate of 78.51% (decrease of 2.92%). What is more alarming is the rate in which the number of forward passes, PTFT (passes to final third), PP (progressive passes) & smart passes have decreased. We now in possession complete 17.22 less forward passes with a success rate of 69.81% (3.77% decrease) per 90, & only 45.81 PTFT per 90 at 62.67% (9.56 PTFT decrease per 90 & 9.31% decreased success rate).
To compound our lack of control in possession further we have seen PP drop to on average 62.63 & 70.47 % per 90 (decrease of 11.85 PP & 3.87% per 90). Our smart passes at 3.94 sees a drop of 3.38 on average drop per 90 although the success has increased by 6.48% to 42.62%. This has impacted on our ability not only to retain possession but to also create or exploit spaces through set sequences.
As a result we have seen an up surge in direct/long passes of 47.31 an increase of 1.89 per 90 with an overall completion rate of 53.61% (2.72% decrease). This has had varied results in matches as not all long passes have shown a purpose beyond bypassing the midfield & trying to get Antonio running behind. Under Moyes I think we can agree West Ham haven’t been good enough on the ball. There has been a big departure from “defending with the ball”, relying on patient play to try & create spaces in order for a more direct style.
Attack
This is an area which may surprise some as to how we have faired under Moyes, whilst it is a mixed bag it is more positive perhaps perceived. There have been some improvements across the metrics. Although, I feel we do need to prefix this with the fact Moyes has had Antonio available for all bar 4 games (missed 10/19 under Pellegrini), players returning to fitness, plus the additions of Soucek & Bowen.
Since the appointment of Moyes we have engaged in less defensive duals with an average of 58.94 per 90 but increased success of 0.42 resulting in 41.04 duals won. A nice surprise can be seen in the xG (expected goals) increase, which is on average up by 0.23 to 1.49 per 90. Therefore, has in turn seen attempts at goal on average increase per 90 to 10.31 (up by 0.47), whilst this is an solid improvement our on target success rate has dropped 7.96% to 38.16%.
A concern is that positional attacks with shot opportunities has decreased to 22.19 per 90 (5.76 drop per 90), in spite of this once again the success rate for shots opportunities has improved to 18.48% (1.85% averageincrease per 90). Areas which have be supported the improvement can be found when accessing the stats at our ability to counterattack & cross. This is where the likes of Antonio, Soucek & Bowen have proved pivotal in my mind to improve on our outputs to Pellegrini’s time. On average West Ham have 4.31 counterattacks with shots opportunities per 90 which has a success rate of getting off a shot at 29.11% (2.12% increase). When looking at the rate of crossing on average per 90 is 0.26 less at 15, but an increase of 3.45% has resulted in 34.09% success rate. The increase can be attributed in part to Bowen proficiency, but more importantly the numbers in the box has increased. What we are now seeing is the likes of Haller, Soucek, Antonio & now fit Yarmolenko (when playing) attack the opposing box.
What is interesting is our proficiency from set pieces & our ability to place ourselves into shooting positions. This is where Moyes has excelled with on average achieving 0.88 shots from 3.13 free kicks per 90 & a 32.81% shots on target rate. This in turn represents an upturn of 0.45 shots across an additional 0.97 free kicks per 90 & a 14.39% in shots on target. Where we haven’t necessarily had as much of an improvement is when attack corners under Moyes. Whilst we on average have 5.38 corners per 90 we only achieve 1.25 shots & on target 24.97%, therefore we achieve 0.17 less shots per 90 on average & 4.12% less accurate than under Pellegrini.
There has been improvement to the previous half of the season in some areas which has helped to ensure we are a consistent threat both in open play & at set pieces. What is interesting is the marginal increases in attack despite the significant drop off in our ability whilst in possession of the ball.
Conclusion
As stated at the top I am not a fan & have reservations that he is a credible candidate to bring long term success. Pellegrini prior to leaving was 1 point per match whereas Moyes is 0.94 & needs to a win plus a draw over the next 3 games to reach the same milestone. Should Moyes match what Pellegrini achieved this season, arguably the club should be spared the pit of despair which will flow from relegation. What I find interesting is how are one record is acceptable to continue on as West Ham manager whereas the others was deemed sackable? I know many will point to the money spent during his time as a reason, but this does ignore the fact this is money which had been promised in previous times under Bilic. I will add Pellegrini did become his own worst enemy in the preference to field Roberto during Fabianski’s injury, but was let down in the clubs inability not to acquire a left back & centre midfielder as requested.
There are some signs of encouragement when we access the figures of Moyes’ 2nd tenure over the club, but also some red flags too. Not being able to hold possession in the EPL is a dangerous game as have to rely on a strong defensive unit which evidently we don’t have with full back being a particular weakness. Even though we have rejected the high line employed by Pellegrini a deeper starting position hasn’t improved our resilience & the in my view passiveness demonstrated by the PPDA is a concern. Bowen & Soucek have been a revelation who without them I genuinely believe we would have been relegated with Norwich by now.
For me the numbers don’t stack up to a manager who has been able to turn around a team significantly enough to be viewed as the person to bring long term success. I accept the argument that should the imbalances in defense be addressed in the summer we could improve, but will the changes be significant enough to improve the squad & push us back up the league? I have my reservations on this, and would appraise the market in the summer. Although, you fear under Gold, Sullivan & Brady this will only be done should a manager of a particular mould be free to move without compensation.
WHU: Pretty Bubbles in the Air 